The campaign left him $60,000 in debt and unsure of his future. At 38, he was a state legislator in a party out of power, a black politician trounced in the black heartland, an outsider in the tribal world of Chicago politics. His long absences from home had angered his wife. "He was very dejected when it was over," said Mikva, "and thinking of how else he could use his talents." When a nonprofit group dangled a high-paying job, as director, Obama was so nervous--for fear that he might get it--that his hands were shaking on the way to the interview, a former aide reported.
I feel inclined to diary this...even though I have sworn off tracking polls many times.
Gallup today shows Obama with quite a serious bump, obviously, from his overseas trip. He has a 6-point lead.
It is unclear at this point whether the trip will boost Obama's poll standing, but his performance in Sunday interviewing was one of his stronger in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, and his current six percentage point lead is among the largest he has held over McCain to date.
Meanwhile Rasmussen has him at his lowest level since the primaries ended, and shows the race as almost tied.
Obviously, I believe Gallup since Obama's trip to see the troops and meet with generals is likely to have bolstered some of his foreign policy cred, the one area where Mccain has an advantage.
But for several weeks, when Gallup showed the race to be tied, even when it was clear that Obama was ahead, it was RASMUSSEN that showed him with a 5-point lead, which I believed.
So what's the answer? Forget about tracking polls altogether?? How can their methodology produce such different results?
I've been biting my nails over Barack's plans to give a speech in Germany. I know everyone is really excited about this but I'm convinced it's a mistake.
First, there was much speculation that they would be doing it at the Brandenburg Gate, something that I found to be quite inappropriate. The fact that they STILL pursued it, even after various German politicians including Angela Merkel criticized the idea, was something I found stunningly arrogant.
Now he will be speaking before the Victory Column, which is a relief. And I am still biting my nails. After all...as much as we want him to be...
Barack Obama isn't President yet.
What business does he really have giving a speech overseas like this?? What is the rationale behind it? To quote Tuffie's comment from the diary on the rec list:
This has backlash stamped all over it. It fits every single GOP and media these: arrogance, President of Eurotrash or America?, etc., etc. It makes me uneasy.
This feels like it's all about Obama, Obama, Obama. It isn't going to gain him a SINGLE vote that he doesn't already have. It may, instead alienate those folks who already think he's too foreign and too different from them.
This is a diary repost: I wrote it earlier but I thought the night-time crew might like to meet Obama's awesome sister.
Barack's sister, Maya, is pretty amazing as a surrogate. She's funny and charming a great speaker and really inspirational (Hmmn...she reminds me of someone....)
I think the campaign is planning on using her more on the campaign trail and she's doing a great job. She was in Florida holding events including a fundraiser and even a meeting with teachers (she has a PhD in Education and is a teacher herself).
Here is her appearance at a Women for Obama yesterday. She had lots of personal stories to share including talking about their mother and grandmother, and how Barack's daughters make him cry. I think she's just as effective as Michelle in terms of reaching out to women, especially Hillary's voters, and showing a different side of Barack.
I basically love her already. (More below the fold.)
Barack's sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng is pretty amazing as a surrogate. She's funny and charming a great speaker and really inspirational (Hmmn...she reminds me of someone....)
She has been quietly holding events on his behalf for weeks now and was there in Montana to celebrate Malia's birthday. I think the campaign is planning on using her even more on the campaign trail and she's doing a great job. She's in Florida today (and yesterday) holding events including a fundraiser and even meeting with teachers (she has a PhD in Education and is a teacher herself).
Here is her appearance at a Women for Obama yesterday. She had lots of personal stories to share including talking about their mother and grandmother, and how Barack's daughters make him cry. I think she's just as effective as Michelle in terms of reaching out to women, especially Hillary's voters, and showing a different side of Barack.
I basically love her already. (More below the fold.)
Are there any statistical whizzes who can offer some insight into the discrepancy between Gallup and Rasmussen's methodology that could lead to the wildly different results they produce???????
For many weeks, Rasmussen has shown Obama with a lead of about 5 points while Gallup showed him tied ahead by 2-3 points, and I was cursing Gallup because it seems to be the only tracking poll that the Cable News folks have ever heard of, and they would always cite it as proof of "how close the race is."
For the last week, Rasmussen has shown the race tightening, which has considerably upset me. Meanwhile, Gallup has Obama increasing his lead to six points! Which is almost his highest lead...
They both sample over three days. Gallup is more respected but I do think they were wrong about the closeness of the race in past weeks. Even a Gallup-sponsored national poll didn't show the race being as close.
So, what can we conclude about where Obama stands from these numbers? Which polling outfit is closer to the truth?
Intuitively, I tend to believe Rasmussen since I think they have been on the mark about Obama's lead. But NOW, I really want to believe Gallup.
This is a follow-up to my diary yesterday about Michelle's new campaign approach.
She is now doing "roundtable discussions" with groups of women (which is a terrific format for her) and I have been tracking how the local press covers her appearances. Local press is FAR more important and more influential than whatever is being peddled on cable news.
Yesterday, she was in Pontiac, Michigan and received great press in all the local papers. Even better, she is getting fabulous attention from local TV news. ABC12 did three different, detailed segments on her visit. You can watch one here and here. They emphasize her message of equal pay for women, ending the war and funneling that money to domestic issues, health insurance etc. Basically, all bread and butter, substantive issues.
I really urge you to watch all three clips. It's so refreshing!! No talk of Michelle being "a lighting rod" as the national press always insists on saying.
Also, not that it matters, but Michelle looks STUNNING.
Michelle has a really novel new approach to her campaigning and one that I find brilliant.
Starting in New Hampshire a few weeks ago, she now does these "roundtable discussions" with groups of women where she zeroes in on issues like getting adequate child care and the Family Leave Act. She still has a stump speech (and it's a great speech), one that wraps around relevant policies, but a lot of what she does is listen to other women and their concerns and then responding with her own thoughts.
Like The View basically.
Anyway, this framework really plays to her strengths. When she was in New Hampshire right before the Unity event, she got GLOWING press, not only in newspapers but on the local news. She came across as incredibly warm and intelligent (and beautiful! She wore this very striking white and gray dress that I am still looking for).
It's basically the PERFECT format for her.
Today she appeared in Pontiac Michigan with Jennifer Granholm and has gotten more really great local press.
In case you missed it, the Obamas did an interview with Access Hollywood that aired earlier today. I think there's another part tomorrow. Anyway, the Obama girls are LOVELY and they are all such a beautiful family.
How beautiful? That even Bill O'reilly was touched! He actually took some time out of his Obama-bashing to say something nice about Malia.
I couldn't figure out how to embed the videos but here is a link.
I almost fell out of my seat! Seriously, though, it's a testament to the cuteness of that kid!
I have a few links to clips to the interview below the fold. If anyone knows how to embed non-Youtube videos, pretty please let me know.
When Obama arrived and stepped out of an enormous bus, he was greeted with a rowdy "O-BAM-A" chant from the crowd, which quickly provided a hearty rendition of "Happy Birthday" for Malia.
Yesterday we learned that the NRA will be putting some major bucks (a $40 million dollar effort) towards slamming Obama on gun control in battleground states.
Well we are returning fire. Elizabeth Edwards, already such an effective surrogate for Obama when it comes to Health Care, is headlining the group Health Care for America Now to advocate for Universal Health Care and criticize Mccain's ridiculous plan. Via Politico:
Next week, the group Health Care for America Now will unveil a $40 million effort, with the first ad buy being a $1.5 million in national print, online and broadcast advertising.
...
The group's goal is to provide "quality, affordable health care for every American," and it obviously dovetails with the Obama campaign's promise of providing universal health care. The group will spend $25 million in paid media, while also funding 100 organizers involved in events around the country.
I am feeling pretty frustrated. I won't write a GBCW because that would be as unproductive as the diaries that are frustrating me so much.
But I was re-reading Dreams from My Father earlier today. When I first read it three years ago, I really only knew Obama as a writer and I was thinking about what a lyrical and poetic and beautiful story it was.
But having followed this campaign for 17 months, I feel like I know Barack Obama the man, or at least, having become incredibly invested in this campaign, I feel like part of his journey. Anyway, on this read, this passage stuck out to me.
p. 49
'If you want to grow into a human being,’ she would say to me, ‘you’re going to need some values.
"’Honesty – Lolo should not have hidden the refrigerator in the storage room when the tax officials came, even if everyone else, including the tax officials, expected such things.
Fairness – the parents of wealthier students should not give television sets to the teachers during Ramadan, and their children could take no pride in the higher marks they might have received."
I feel soooooooo silly using a diary on this...I am hanging my head in shame, as I type this.
But I have become strangely attached to the contest that Parents.com is having between the two possible First Ladies, (or rather between their cookies). I didn't make Cindy's recipe, but Michelle's shortbread cookies are THE BESTEST, and plus, it will give her a nice round of good publicity when she wins the contest.
Also, ever since Cindy Mccain's highly unladylike attack on Michelle Obama last week, and since I learned that Cindy actually plagiarized her recipe, I am just really determined for Michelle to take her down.
Until today, Michelle was ahead by almost 130 votes. But Cindy has been really closing in--perhaps Red State is freeping it? Anyway, if you have two seconds PRETTY PLEASE go and vote for Michelle? If you already signed up for this thing last week when it first started, you can actually vote again, every single day, so just log in and vote for Michelle.
Thank you! You may now return to the serious political news!
Ever since May's lackluster numbers, I think a lot of folks are worried about Obama's fundraising. I am actually GLAD that people are worried since it makes them more likely to give.
But I have been closely tracking Obama's money intake, as best as I could, over the past month and I would say we have NOTHING to worry about.
The main difference between this month and last month is that they are doing a TON of fundraisers. Having the nomination wrapped up has freed both Barack and Michelle from having to campaign constantly and both are using their time to really rake in the cash.
Yesterday Michelle held TWO fundraisers. One in the afternoon in Alabama that had about 250 guests for at least $1,000 a pop. Then in the evening, she went to Washington DC and had another one.
Last week I did something I would normally NEVER consider.
As I was busily stacking my groceries on the conveyor belt I came to face with...Michelle and Barack, looking so happy and in love on the cover of US Weekly! And naturally, I bought the thing. Literally the first time I have ever, ever spent money on a celebrity magazine.
And, I wasn't the only one. Michelle's cover issue was apparently a big success!!
Putting Michele Obama on the cover of Us Weekly appears to be a gamble that’s paid off. Early sales numbers for the celeb glossy are trickling in, and according to sources that are familiar, the June 30 issue could sell more than 900,000 copies. (A spokesperson for Us declined comment, saying that whether good or bad, the magazine doesn’t comment on week-to-week sales.)
To put the numbers in perspective, sales for the prior three weeks’ covers averaged about 710,000 copies per week.
A new poll out tonight from ABC/WAPO has uniformly good news as well as some areas where Barack can progress.
Highlights:
Obama has more work to do with Hillary's voters. This particular poll doesn't show much of a unity bounce. I think when she and Bill start campaigning for him it will go a long, long way toward getting those folks back.
Almost nine in 10 Republicans now support McCain, while not quite eight in 10 Democrats said they support Obama. Nearly a quarter of those who said they favored Clinton over Obama for the nomination currently prefer McCain for the general election, virtually unchanged from polls taken before Clinton suspended her campaign.
One EXTREMELY encouraging sign....Americans are catching on that Mccain is really Mcbush!!
In general, 57 percent said McCain would continue to lead the country as Bush has, while 38 percent said he would chart a new course.
This is BEFORE Obama runs ads defining him. So that's a great start.
Happy Father's day to all the Daddy Kossacks out there!
Today Barack gave a speech about Fatherhood and what it means to him. It was--surprise, surprise-- a really wonderful speech. I thought that others, like myself, might also enjoy reading it. And maybe the video will be available soon?
I thought I should write up today's Rasmussen poll since yesterday's showed Obama losing a point and folks were worried the bounce wouldn't last. But he's actually holding steady at 6 points, attracting 47% of the vote and John McCain gets 41%. With "leaners" Obama hits 50% and still leads by 6%.
In the Rasmussen weekly tracking poll listing of 2004, which you can check out here, you'll see that John Kerry never had a lead of 6 points. His biggest lead was 2.8 points, in August. Most of the time he was behind or led by much less than that. Like 1.4 or even .6. George Bush also never had a lead of six points. So ignore the Dukakis comparison--that poll was probably an outlier. When we compare where Obama is now to where Kerry was in 2004, he is in a markedly stronger position.
When Hillary and Bill Clinton start campaigning for Barack and when he starts advertising on television, I expect he will increase this lead somewhat.
